The long-term fallout of the war in Iran is only beginning to take shape, but this much is clear: The conflict has left the Middle East unsettled, alliances strained and the world facing uncertain shifts in the balance of economic and military power.
Iran’s theocracy is tattered but alive, with new economic leverage. The United States and Israel will hold elections this year, their leaders potentially facing voters having fallen short of their war aims. The NATO alliance, already strained, is under even more pressure. The Gulf Arab states face an emboldened Iran in their backyard.
With the U.S. and Iran beginning face-to-face talks Saturday in Pakistan, Associated Press journalists in the Middle East and Washington share their assessments on how the war is reverberating across the world during the tenuous ceasefire:
Israel's ambitious goals not yet fully met
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to be graded for the war, he would get an “incomplete.”
Netanyahu set some ambitious goals at the outset of the fighting on Feb. 28, saying he wanted to remove the threats posed by Iran’s missile and nuclear programs and its support for hostile proxy groups. He pledged to create the conditions for a popular uprising against the Iranian government. None of these goals has been fully achieved.
In a televised address after the ceasefire, Netanyahu acknowledged “we still have goals to complete.” But he nonetheless claimed “immense achievements.”
“Iran is weaker than ever, and Israel is stronger than ever. This is the bottom line of this campaign,” he said.
With elections later this year, the question for Netanyahu is whether the Israeli public agrees with his assessment.
Israelis overwhelmingly supported the war against archenemy Iran, especially in the early days of the campaign. But as the war dragged on, Israelis also grew tired as nonstop air-raid sirens disrupted daily life and sent people scrambling into bomb shelters around the clock.
Netanyahu is now hoping that in the coming ceasefire talks the U.S. will shore up the battlefield gains into a permanent agreement that guards Israel’s interests. He also must ensure that his relationship with President Donald Trump remains strong after an inconclusive war that was deeply unpopular in the U.S.
Otherwise, Netanyahu could find himself struggling for his job when his war-weary nation heads to the polls.
— Josef Federman, deputy news director for the Middle East
Depleted Iran finds leverage
Iran, battered by nationwide protests in January and heavy airstrikes in the war, suddenly finds itself in a position of power.
Just the threat of sea mines and possible attacks from Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has ships staying away from the Strait of Hormuz, in effect keeping the waterway crucial for international energy shipments closed.
Even hard-liners have spun the killing of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into the idea of replacing him with a younger, more hard-line version of himself in his son, Mojtaba.
The government has put forward its own maximalist demands ahead of the Islamabad talks — including continuing to enrich uranium in its nuclear program, one of the chief reasons Trump gave for going to war.
Yet Iran’s military sites now sit in ruins, its missile arsenal broadly depleted, and the threat of more protests by its people still looms in the future. That unrest could be spurred on by the sheer level of destruction in Iran’s oil and gas industry, as well as attacks targeting steel mills and other economic sites.
— Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran
Gulf Arab states in the middle
After insisting and pleading with Iran to leave them out of the conflict, the Gulf Arab states still found themselves targeted by Iran, which rained down drone and missile fire on airports, energy sites, military bases and civilian targets across the region.
Many had to close refineries or declare themselves unable to meet their promised oil output due to the war. Even with a ceasefire in place, Iran’s new control of the Strait of Hormuz through threats alone means Gulf states still aren’t able to get their energy shipments out to market.
They aren’t a monolith though, with opinions ranging from Oman’s efforts at diplomacy to the United Arab Emirates denouncing Iranian aggression and insisting the status quo cannot stand.
— Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran
Ceasefire uncertainty in Lebanon
In Lebanon, the regional war has taken a devastating toll and the prospect of a ceasefire now leaves more questions than answers.
The U.S. and Israel are at odds with Iran over whether or not their ceasefire extends to the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not.
In the meantime, Lebanese and Israeli officials have agreed to enter into direct negotiations, which Lebanon hopes will lead to a ceasefire and Israel hopes will lead to disarmament of Hezbollah. Netanyahu said the negotiations would also include talks about a potential peace agreement between the two countries, which do not have diplomatic relations.
While the talks represent a significant step, reaching an agreement will not be easy. Lebanon wants a halt to Israeli strikes before the talks start, a condition that Israel is unlikely to agree to.
In practice, most analysts say Lebanon does not have the capacity to disarm Hezbollah by force or to enforce any ceasefire agreement that Hezbollah does not agree to.
For now, the Israel-Hezbollah war that has displaced more than a million people and killed nearly 1,900 continues.
— Abby Sewell, news director for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq
Strained NATO relations pushed to the brink
Trump has repeatedly tested the 32-member alliance.
He cut off direct U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, threatened to take the Arctic territory of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, and cajoled members to spend more on defense.
Now, his differences with NATO allies over Iran are raising new questions about whether the alliance, created as a curative to post World War II instability, can survive.
Since launching the war, Trump has derided allies as “cowards,” slammed NATO as “a paper tiger” and compared U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Neville Chamberlain, the former premier known for a policy of appeasement toward Nazi Germany.
Trump is angry at member countries ignoring his call to help as Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, and at alliance members Spain and France restricting the use of their airspace or joint military facilities by U.S. forces supporting the operations in Iran.
Trump says the moment is “a mark on NATO that will never disappear.”
— Aamer Madhani, White House reporter, Washington
United States faces economic woes
Trump won back the White House promising to curb inflation, bring down prices many Americans saw as too high and trigger a jobs boom. The war in Iran has done exactly the opposite, raising gas prices, leaving stock markets reeling and sending shock waves through the rest of the economy as the labor market weakens and inflation begins rising anew.
With November’s midterms looming, none of that is good for Republicans trying to keep control of Congress. Trump initially tried to calm economic fears by visiting swing states. But he first scoffed at affordability worries as a hoax, then stopped those trips altogether as the war consumed his administration.
Making a ceasefire stick might eventually stabilize oil prices and financial markets, but reversing economic pain around the globe may take far longer, potentially affecting voters closer to Election Day.
Polling also shows that most Americans believe U.S. military action in Iran went too far. And the war has even caused a rift within Trump’s once seemingly unflappable MAGA base.
— Will Weissert, White House reporter, Washington
Energy prices and markets
The conflict has largely shut down the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil travels, and has damaged oil and gas production facilities across the Middle East.
In response, oil prices have shot higher all over the world. Brent crude oil, the international standard, has gone from roughly $70 per barrel before the war in late February to more than $119 at times. Brent rose 0.7% to $96.58 Friday.
Prices at the pump have jumped as well, reaching about $4.15 a gallon in the U.S., up from just under $3 before the conflict began. Higher gas costs can sap Americans’ ability to spend on other goods and services, slowing the economy and threatening to worsen unemployment.
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, up sharply from just 2.4% in February and the biggest yearly increase since May 2024. The surge in gas prices will stretch the budgets of lower- and middle-income households.
— Christopher Rugaber, economics reporter, Washington
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AP writers Jonathan J. Cooper and Mike Catalini contributed.
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