Trump to campaign in North Carolina rally with his handpicked Senate nominee Michael Whatley

Trump has acknowledged the challenging landscape but believes his presence will be a clear boost.

“In North Carolina, you have a little more difficult case, because people don’t quite get it, but they’re going to find out,” Trump said during his keynote speech in Dallas.

Whatley needs more than Trump loyalists

Democrats have not won a Senate contest in the state since 2008, and Trump has carried North Carolina three times since. The seat is critical to Democrats' effort to flip control of the Senate. Cooper was perhaps Democrats’ best recruit this cycle, having never lost a statewide race in North Carolina through four terms as attorney general and two terms as governor.

Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, who worked on Tillis’s and North Carolina Sen. Ted Budd’s campaigns, said Trump will energize Republicans who may not be as excited about the campaign as Democrats are. But he noted that registered Democrats and Republicans in North Carolina are split about evenly, while independent voters outnumber both. That cohort of more than 3.5 million voters, he said, is more concerned about the economy, an issue where Trump is weaker than he was in 2024, than with crime or immigration, issues where North Carolina Republicans might still have an advantage over Democrats.

“They see the White House more focused on everything but the economy,” Shumaker said. “So that narrative has to change to give them a path here in North Carolina.”

Whatley, for his part, has not distanced himself from Trump. During a brief speech in Dallas, he praised Trump’s agenda, especially the tax cuts included in his “big beautiful bill” last year. But instead of lavishing praise on the president himself, he spent most of his time unloading on Cooper, calling him soft on crime and bad for North Carolinians’ wallets.

“Under Roy Cooper’s reign, North Carolina became the most expensive state in the nation for health care costs,” he said.

It was part of his effort to counter the former governor’s emphasis on the economy under Trump, especially gas and grocery prices. But Whatley's claim also hinges on a Forbes study whose methodology has been questioned by North Carolina health insurance analysts and the Republican state auditor, among others.

Democrats focus on the economy and Whatley's problems

Cooper’s campaign pushed back against Whatley’s criticisms and noted that the Republican has faced scrutiny for recently having a convicted sex offender offer the opening prayer at one of his campaign events.

Whatley, meanwhile, is leaning heavily on Trump and national Republican donors to reach voters on TV and online. According to data from AdImpact, which tracks campaign advertising, total Republican spending on the contest has topped $50 million, while Democrats have spent almost $35.2 million, with Trump's MAGA Inc. and other conservative PACs accounting for the overall Republican advantage.

Cooper has no public events Wednesday, but the state Democratic Party sought to keep the spotlight on Trump, Whatley and inflation. In a morning news conference, speakers noted the Republican nominee's oil and gas investments as the energy sector amasses profits while the Iran war drives up fuel costs. Whatley's personal financial disclosures to the Senate show investments in ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and other energy firms. A former energy lobbyist, Whatley backs Trump's actions in Iran.

“Why would Whatley back a war that is driving up prices for North Carolina families at a time when it’s already too hard for us to get by?” state Sen. Woodson Bradley, D-Charlotte, asked. “He’s already shown us everything we need to know.”