New poll shows promise and peril for Democrats in key Georgia races

Democrats hold an early advantage across Georgia’s 2026 ballot in a new poll released to the AJC this morning.

The State Navigate poll shows Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leading Republican Rick Jackson 51-44 when undecided voters are pressed to choose.

Democrat Josh McLaurin leads Republican Greg Dolezal 48-44 in the race for lieutenant governor — within the poll’s margin of error of 4.6 percentage points — while Democrats hold a 51-43 edge on the generic ballot for the Georgia House.

The results point to a difficult political environment for Republicans. Just 41% of voters approve of President Donald Trump’s performance, compared with 56% who disapprove. More than half say Georgia’s economy has worsened over the past year, while only 28% say it has improved.

Jackson also struggles with independent voters, a bloc likely to be pivotal in November.

But there is an important caveat. While the pollsters expect the 2026 electorate to be friendlier to Democrats than the one that voted in 2024, they acknowledge their sample is about 8 points bluer than the presidential electorate, a gap they believe is too favorable to Democrats.

The difficulty of reaching some rural white voters in July may have inflated the party’s margins. Even after the pollsters reweighted the survey, however, Bottoms led by 4 points, McLaurin by 3 and Democrats by 5 on the state House ballot.

One of the most revealing splits involves turnout. Bottoms leads by only 2 points among voters who participated in each of the last four general elections. Her advantage grows to 12 points among less-frequent voters.

That shows both the promise and peril for Democrats. Their potential coalition is broad. But much of that edge depends on voters who are less reliable in midterm elections when the race for president is not on the ballot.

Friday news quiz

Credit: (Ben Gray for the AJC)

Credit: (Ben Gray for the AJC)

Good morning! How closely did you follow the news this week? Find out by taking our quiz. You’ll find the answers the end of the newsletter:

A bill co-authored by U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock became law last week without Trump’s signature. What does the law do?

Georgia’s status as a swing state is attracting out-of-state politicians to come campaign here ahead of the 2026 midterms. Who visited Georgia on Tuesday?

In an interview this week, U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter was not optimistic about what statewide Republican candidate’s chances in November?

On Wednesday, U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff had a heated exchange with Jay Clayton, Trump’s pick to be the next director of national intelligence. What prompted their interaction?

2020 redux

Credit: Ben Hendren for the AJC

Credit: Ben Hendren for the AJC

Trump made no mention of Georgia in his Thursday night address. But the aggressive response from Ossoff and Warnock said plenty.

Both Democrats took to the airwaves before and after the speech, warning that Trump could again seek to undermine Georgia’s elections. Their message was coordinated, but it also reflected their distinct political strategies.

Warnock used the moment to burnish his national profile as a leading defender of voting rights. Ossoff, running for reelection in November, framed the threat in similar terms.

His argument: Any attempt to cast doubt on Georgia’s results would not simply be an attack on his 2021 victory. It would be an insult to the voters who elected him and the state officials who repeatedly affirmed the integrity of the election.

“He is signaling his plans to come right here to Georgia, attack the election and undermine voting rights,” Ossoff said.

Identity politics

Credit: Sarah Peacock

Credit: Sarah Peacock

Ossoff went on CNN this week to boost his reelection campaign, ending his pitch with an obligatory plea for viewers to check out his website at “electjon.com”

CNN’s Jake Taper clarified that it was “Jon” and not “John.”

“You might just need to remind people if you’re going to do that, how to spell it. Unless you also bought ‘John,’” Tapper said.

“We did,” Ossoff replied.

Sure enough, typing “electjohn.com” into your browser will also takes you to Ossoff’s fundraising website.

The Democrat might have learned that lesson from Gov. Brian Kemp, who did not snap up the “briankemp.com” domain quick enough during the 2018 campaign.

A California public relations manager also named Brian Kemp owned that website. And for a while, the domain redirected people to Stacey Abrams, Kemp’s Democratic opponent.

Then state-Rep. Colton Moore came to the rescue by working out a deal to buy the domain name.

AI worries

Credit: AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

Credit: AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

Warnock says he’s not against artificial intelligence. But he’s worried the explosion of value in AI companies could be a precursor to “a massive economic slowdown.”

“I’d be worried about job losses. Stock prices tumbling would mean Americans could not retire as planned, and I don’t want to see taxpayers holding the bag should this AI bubble pop,” Warnock told Kevin Warsh, the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

Warnock pressed Warsh about a task force “to assess the effect of AI on productivity and jobs.” Warnock noted the three people Warsh chose for the task force are tech executives. He asked if the Fed would include “anyone who represents the workers whose lives may be upended by increased adoption of AI tools and technology?”

“It’s a fair question,” Warsh responded. “The assurance I can give you is that these three people on that task force, like the other task forces, they’re not the deciders. You’re talking to one of the deciders.”

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Collins’ new controversy

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, the Republican nominee challenging Ossoff in November, distanced himself from antisemitic and white nationalist comments online posted by his son-in-law.

CNN was the first to report on the social media footprint of David Alan Scheer II, an influencer with more than 1.5 million followers across multiple platforms who is married to Collins’ daughter, Summer. His posts included support for antisemitic conspiracy theories, white nationalist slogans and propaganda and the Patriot Front, a white nationalist hate group whose members recently marched through Washington.

He also recently asked his social media followers to vote in a poll on whether he should make a video about “why Gen-Z doesn’t hate Hitler.”

The initial response from Team Collins was to point to the Jackson Republican’s record supporting Israel. But a spokesman later shared a statement that more directly addressed the controversy.

“Rep. Collins has always condemned all forms of antisemitism, including this, and always will regardless of the source,” the spokesman said. “Collins’ lifelong support for Israel and the Jewish people is guided by his personal beliefs and backed by his consistent voting record.”

Today in Washington

Shoutouts

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

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Before you go

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Answers to this week’s news quiz:

That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider information to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.