Slow starts are not uncommon for young quarterbacks in the NFL

At the other end of the spectrum was former Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who went 11-5 and took the team to the playoffs as a rookie in 2008, while leaning heavily on a 2,000-yard rushing attack powered by Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.

Penix, who was drafted eighth overall in the 2024 draft, has started 12 games and has posted a 4-8 record.

It’s likely too early to tell if Penix is a franchise quarterback using the 20-24 game rule exposed by deceased Hall of Fame executive Gil Brandt. The former Cowboys executive believed that it took 20 to 24 games of development to determine if a quarterback could play in the NFL.

Brandt, who was enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2019, emphasized development at the quarterback position with needed on-field experience that can’t be replicated in practice.

Which is why it was bizarre that Falcons elected not to play Penix during the exhibition games in August when he had only three starts in the 2024 season.

Manning, with that rough developmental period and the addition of running back Edgerrin James, went 13-3 in his second season with the Colts and was on his way,

Aikman was 7-8 in his second season and didn’t blossom until his third season, when the Cowboys were 7-5 and he made the first of six consecutive selections to the Pro Bowl.

For more Falcons historical perspective, coach Dan Reeves slowly developed Michael Vick after he was selected with the No. 1 overall pick in 2001.

Vick was 1-1 his rookie season as the Falcons developed him. Vick went 12-8-1 over his first three seasons in the NFL.

Steve Bartkowski went 4-7 in his rookie season in 1975, when he also was the No. 1 overall draft pick. He went 8-15 over his first three seasons.

The Falcons have had trouble replacing Ryan, who was traded after the 2021 season to the Colts. They’ve had Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke before signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal and then drafting Penix.

The Cousins/Penix acquisitions have hovered over the franchise.

“I think when Kirk became available, I think the football folks on the coaching side and personnel side both felt this was an athlete who performed at the highest level for 14 years in our league, coming off of an injury,” Falcons owner Arthur Blank said. “Our medical staff felt the injury was at a point where he could play and play effectively. So we stepped up, and because we want to win.”

The Falcons had bowed out of the Deshaun Watson derby when the Browns elected to fully guarantee a five-year, $230 million deal in 2021. The Falcons elected not to pursue Lamar Jackson after the Ravens placed the nonexclusive franchise tag on him in 2023.

“We felt that was the right decision at that time,” Blank said about signing Cousins. “We drafted Michael (Penix) because at that time we felt, and still do feel, that Michael was one of the most talented quarterbacks in the draft.”

The Falcons figured Cousins could play while Penix could be developed with an eye toward the future.

“(We were) thinking about the future and not going through a low (period) (if) you didn’t have a franchise quarterback in place.... it’s a very difficult position to be in the NFL,” Blank said. “It’s hard to win in the NFL without a franchise quarterback.”

The Falcons found that out with Mariota, Ridder and Heinicke as they went 7-10 in each of Arthur Smith’s three years.

“It doesn’t have to be great, it has to be really good and solid,” Blank said. “So, we felt that someone like Michael we could draft, bring along for a couple of years.”

The Falcons figured Cousins would age out and then Penix could take over, the way the Green Bay Packers did with Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.

“So, we look forward to having Michael back,” Blank said. “He’s had good surgery. We spoke to the medical staff. It seems to have gone well. Kirk, we’ll see what will happen with him going forward.”

Cousins recently had his contract restructured to provide both sides some offseason flexibility.

The Falcons’ developmental plan was accelerated.

“But, there were decisions about winning now over the next two to three years and then bringing in a young quarterback and not putting the pressure on a rookie quarterback to have to perform at that level,” Blank said.

The coaches being interviewed will have to provide their analyses of Penix.

“The big thing with him is can we find a guy that’s going to organize an offense that strictly fits what he is,” former NFL quarterback Phil Simms said recently on the Cellini & Dimino show on 680 The Fan. “Not only that, to really change his style of play a little bit. ... A little more energy, a little more movement in the pocket. Get rid of the ball and learn how to catch, read it and throw it.”

Penix, an unanimous All-American and Heisman Trophy runner-up in 2023, has shown flashes.

“It was getting a little better at the end of last year,” Simms said. “There’s a lot to do there. I’m not going to sit here and go, they’ve got Michael Penix and when he plays, it’s going to be great.

“No, I’m not convinced of that anymore. But he can be fixed. Again, you’ve got to get a guy in there that knows his skill, knows the team and they can decide the offense that is going to fit him, fit the team and we can get the best out of our quarterback.”

Simms also said he’d like to see Penix under center more and not in the shotgun/pistol formations.

Blank said he still thinks Penix is a franchise quarterback.

“The surgeon felt 1,000% secure in the medical procedure they went through, and they really felt his knee was going to be even better than it was before,” Blank said. “He’s on a successful rehab program. He’s back in Atlanta. He’s committed mentally, physically, he feels good.”