The Falcons won’t be getting the Pro Bowl version of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins would keep him if he were still that good.
Tagovailoa instead should be judged against the veteran backup quarterbacks who are available to the Falcons at a price that wouldn’t put a big dent in their salary cap. He’s a solid choice for them under the circumstances.
The Dolphins announced Monday morning that Tagovailoa will be released when the new league year begins on Wednesday. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported the Falcons now plan to sign him (free agents can’t officially be signed until Wednesday).
I get why the Falcons want Tagovailoa to replace Kirk Cousins as backup QB.
Tagovailoa was on a great career path after the Dolphins drafted him with the fifth pick in 2020 out of Alabama. A series of injuries, including concussions, derailed Tagovailoa.
But Tagovailoa is only 28 years old. There’s still hope that he can be an effective quarterback if he stays healthy. Maybe new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski and his staff can get more out of Tagovailoa than the Dolphins did before benching him after Week 15 last season.
The Falcons will find out after signing him at a discount.
The Dolphins still owe Tagovailoa $54 million. He plans to sign with the Falcons for just over the league minimum, reportedly about $1.3 million. That’s a great price for a good, veteran backup.
Money is an important consideration for the Falcons. Per Spotrac, they’ll only have about $20 million to spend under the salary cap once Cousins is officially released. Signing a veteran backup QB for cheap means more money available to spend on free agents at other positions.
Tagovailoa could fill in capably if Falcons starter Michael Penix Jr. isn’t ready to start the season after knee surgery. If Tagovailoa rediscovers some of his old form, then he could compete with Penix for the starting job. It’s not out of the question that Tagovailoa could win it if he gets the chance.
Penix has never been as good in the NFL as Tagovailoa was from 2022 to 2023. Tagovailoa finished fourth in Expected Points Added (play-by-play impact) per snap in 2022 and sixth in 2023. Then the injuries started piling up as Tagovailoa’s confidence seemed to decline.
Tagovailoa’s injury history makes signing him a risk for the Falcons. He’s only played a complete season once as a pro. There are also health concerns for Penix after he suffered the third ACL tear of his playing career last season (he said he plans to be ready for Week 1).
It’s not ideal to have two players in the quarterback room with histories of major injuries. The Falcons could still sign a veteran with a better track record of durability. But then they wouldn’t have much cap space left to improve the rest of the roster.
A good veteran backup QB usually requires about $5 million of cap space. The Falcons could have spent more to sign the likes of Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor and Jimmy Garoppolo. But durability is about the only thing they have over Tagovailoa.
The cap hit for Tagovailoa on a minimum salary will be about 25% of $5 million. Why use more of the cap space to sign a backup QB who may not end up playing, anyway?
There are other young and (probably) cheap quarterbacks available in addition to Tagovailoa. The best of the bunch are Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett and Trey Lance.
Tagovailoa is better than all of them. He just needs to stay healthy.
Kyler Murray would be my first choice among QBs the Falcons could sign for cheap. He will be the best QB option on the market once the Cardinals release him on Wednesday while owing him about $36 million. But that means Murray can pick a team where he’ll be the clear starter.
The Vikings are reportedly the favorite to sign him. They are seeking an upgrade from J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz. Murray wouldn’t have such a clear path to be the starter here.
That leaves Tagovailoa as the best, cheap choice for the Falcons in a weak QB market.
His performance has declined since he was selected for the Pro Bowl in 2023. Injuries are a major concern. That’s why the Dolphins are moving on from Tagovailoa just one year after he signed a franchise-record contract extension that included $167 million guaranteed.
It didn’t work out for Tagovailoa in Miami. But he could be a solid, cheap acquisition for the Falcons.
You can now get my column sent straight to your inbox. Sign up for my newsletter here.
About the Author
Keep Reading
The Latest
Featured
