Falcons GM Ian Cunningham has a draft strategy. Now comes the hard part.

“You can’t have enough draft picks,” Cunningham said. “We did that in Baltimore. You want to retain your own. So that’s what we’re going to do.”

It makes sense. Given the unpredictability of the draft market, there is wisdom in accumulating picks in the hopes that greater volume will increase the probability of hitting on more players.

Conversely, the strategy of giving up draft picks to typically move up a handful of slots is betting on your draft acumen being markedly better than the competition’s, of being so certain that an available prospect is undervalued at a particular point in the draft that you’re willing to sacrifice extra draft choices to trade for him.

It was the habit of Cunningham’s predecessor, Terry Fontenot, who in five drafts traded up four times and traded back just once.

He’ll forever be linked to the trade that sacrificed the 2026 first-round pick in exchange for the Los Angeles Rams’ first-round choice that the Falcons used on edge rusher James Pearce Jr., who initially validated the trade with superior play as a rookie but now faces multiple felony charges stemming from an alleged incident involving a former girlfriend.

Cunningham’s vision makes particular sense given the Falcons have only five draft picks in this year’s selection process, which begins Thursday night, because of the Pearce trade and another that brought the Falcons safety Xavier Watts.

“We only have five right now, but we only had five in Chicago my first year there, too. I think we ended up with 10.”

The Bears’ haul in 2022 — Cunningham’s first draft as assistant GM in support of GM Ryan Poles — was 11 picks. And in Cunningham’s four years with the Bears, Poles traded down 10 times and traded up twice.

Here’s a stat to build confidence in Cunningham: In that 2022 draft, the Bears swapped four picks in multiple trades that turned into seven picks.

The combined production of those seven picks compared with what the four players did for the teams that drafted them, according to Pro Football Reference data:

Games (Bears totals first): 287 to 158

Starts: 121 to 51

Offensive and defensive snaps: 8,452 to 3,487

That volume would seem exactly what the Falcons, short on depth and lacking in salary-cap space, need to get out of this week’s draft — as many cheap and productive players as they can acquire.

The obvious caveat, though, is that trading down is only the first — and easy — part. Cunningham has to actually get the picks right.

He has benefited from years of experience working for consistent winners in Philadelphia and Baltimore, and helped rebuild the Bears from 3-14 in his first season to 11-6 this past season, their first winning season in the past seven.

Cunningham gives every impression of someone smart enough to trust the wisdom collected by scouts, coaches and the team’s analytics staff. Aside from his pick-hoarding leanings, he also leans heavily toward “best player available” — another smart approach.

Almost certainly, the Falcons will sit out the first round and not try to get back into it. For one thing, they don’t have a lot that would entice a team to give up its first-round pick.

Cunningham will get to work Friday with pick No. 48, the 16th of the second round. He said this week the middle of the draft is strong, and receiver and defensive end are deeper positions, while running back and defensive tackle are thinner.

How does trading out of it in exchange for an extra third-round choice sound?

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