Looking back, qualms over Braves’ pitching injuries seem overblown

And despite these developments, the Braves, aside from some minor moves, stood pat. Free agent Chris Bassitt, a seemingly obvious solution, signed with the Baltimore Orioles. The inaction elicited an uproar within many precincts of Braves Country.

Perhaps more than he ever had in his largely successful tenure, general manager and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos became a social media piñata.

Yet this is where the Braves stood Monday night after 17 games, a hair more than the first tenth of the schedule.

First in MLB in ERA at 2.86.

Second in WHIP at 1.07.

Second in opponent batting average at .210.

And this was without two presumed rotation anchors, Schwellenbach and Strider.

You could also contend that all we’re looking at is a small sample combined with a soft schedule and that the Braves’ true colors will reveal themselves over time, even in Monday’s 10-4 loss to the Marlins.

Indeed, the Braves’ five opponents in the first 16 games (Kansas City, the Athletics, Arizona, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland) are a tamer bunch than what they’re about to face (Miami, Philadelphia, Washington and Philadelphia again in a stretch of 13 games in 14 days that began Monday).

But it’s not just the schedule.

Every season includes passages of weaker opponents. But in the Braves’ seasons in which the designated hitter has been universal (2020, 2022-26), they have rarely pitched as exceptionally as they did in their first 16 games of the season, when they had an ERA of 2.41 with a WHIP of 1.01.

In those seasons, they had only one 16-game stretch in which they achieved an ERA of 2.41 or lower with a WHIP of 1.01 or lower, according to Stathead.

This hasn’t been solely a factor of opponent strength.

And evidence would suggest that superior pitching over 17 games doesn’t typically happen by accident. The Braves became the 48th team this century to play their first 17 games of the season with a 2.86 ERA or lower, again by Stathead’s calculation. Of the first 47, 41 (87%) ended up finishing in the top half of MLB in ERA and 32 (68%) finished in the top 10.

(You probably don’t want to know about one particular outlier, as it was the 2025 New York Mets, who finished 18th in ERA and whose pitching coach was Jeremy Hefner, now in the Braves’ employ. In fairness, the Mets pitching staff was crushed by injuries.)

In short, this most likely bodes well for the Braves.

You might consider the strong start a validation of the confidence the club placed in spring training question marks such as López, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder based on past performance and offseason reports. It might have sounded like spin in February, but it appears the club’s belief in what it had on the roster has been founded.

Believe this much: The pitching has performed about as well as the Braves could have hoped.

“It’s the starters, it’s the bullpen,” manager Walt Weiss said Sunday. These guys are putting us in positions to win virtually every night.”

Hefner has helped, undoubtedly.

For example, Elder’s pitch shaping has taken a turn for the better, his slider having added more vertical drop and horizontal movement. In 2025, Elder threw 883 sliders, according to Statcast. Of the 883, 28 of them had 43 or more inches of vertical drop combined with at least three inches of horizontal break, 3.2%.

Through his first three starts this season, he has already thrown 31 such pitches out of 93 sliders, 33%. Opponents are hitting .083 against the slider this year.

Said Weiss: “The offense gets a lot of the glory but you’ve got to pitch or you can’t win — and that’s exactly what we’re doing right now.”

The added bonus, of course, is that the Braves have managed this without Strider and Schwellenbach. Strider is due to make his rehab start this week. Schwellenbach is making progress but has yet to start throwing again. At Gwinnett, JR Ritchie (1.27 ERA in four starts) and Didier Fuentes (0.00 ERA in two starts) are bucking for promotions.

Further, the Braves still have the money they didn’t spend to add a pitcher like Bassitt and can use it to expedite a trade later this season.

There’s a long way to go. But the early results are persuasive that the Braves made the right call this spring.

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