Forget the caveats about long season. Never mind that the Phillies are showing signs of life.
All signs point to the Braves winning the division for the first time since they won their sixth in a row in 2023. The Braves are dominating the National League East like no previous team ever has at this point of the year, and three of their division rivals show no signs of being able to catch them.
As for the Phillies, they’ll have to keep winning when their schedule toughens. They’ll also need the Braves to go on a prolonged losing streak at some point.
I don’t see either thing happening.
Regression is coming for the Phillies (20-22). They’ve steadied their season by beating an underwhelming slate of opponents for the past two weeks.
After finishing their current series against the Red Sox, the Phillies will play six series in a row against opponents that currently have winning records. The Phillies aren’t built to survive a stretch like that.
Meanwhile, the Braves (29-13) keep winning against quality opponents.
They won two of three games at the two-time World Series-champion Dodgers over the weekend. They returned home to win the series opener on Tuesday against the Cubs, who have the second-best record in the NL.
The Braves led the NL East by nine games to begin Wednesday. According to Baseball Reference, that’s the largest-ever lead by any NL East team on this date since divisional play began in 1969. The 1998 Braves and 1993 Phillies each had seven-game leads to begin May 13 during their seasons.
The 2026 Braves look even better by comparison when you consider they’ve played more games at this point than any previous NL East team except the 2025 Mets. New York was 27-15 to begin May 13 last year with a 2½-game lead in the East.
The Braves have fielded great teams since moving from the NL West to the East in 1994. None of them could match this team’s early dominance in the division. The Braves keep winning amid crises that would sink lesser teams.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been out since May 3 with a bad hamstring and has hit well below his standard when in the lineup. Austin Riley has had home run droughts of 18 and 13 games. Braves left fielders rank 27th in on-base plus slugging.
None of that has stopped the Braves from leading MLB in runs scored.
They don’t just hit for power (second in extra-base hit percentage). The Braves also put balls in play (sixth-best strikeout rate). They rank fourth in on-base percentage.
Braves first baseman Matt Olson leads MLB in OPS. Drake Baldwin is outpacing his Rookie of the Year numbers. Ozzie Albies is on track for a career-best year at the plate. Michael Harris II and Dominic Smith are providing pop in the bottom part of the order.
Making a pitch
Adversity hasn’t fazed the Braves’ pitching staff, either. The Braves lead MLB in starters’ ERA with zero innings from Spencer Schwellenbach and two starts from Spencer Strider.
It’s no surprise that Chris Sale has been great. I’m shocked that Bryce Elder looks like an All-Star again. I didn’t see old pro Martín Pérez being even better than he was for the White Sox last season.
Braves closer Raisel Iglesias missed two weeks with a shoulder injury. Aaron Bummer has regressed. It hasn’t mattered. Braves relievers are tied for the third-best ERA.
The Braves have been the best team in baseball for weeks. The Phillies aren’t a serious threat to catch them. Philadelphia has won four straight series since losing two of three games at Truist Park. Three of those opponents are losing teams.
The Phillies led MLB in batting average (.275) and home runs (19) during that stretch and were second in runs scored (68). But they ranked just ninth in OBP for those two weeks and are 26th for the season.
Unlike the Braves, the Phillies don’t have the offensive diversity to score consistently, and Philadelphia’s pitching has been bad all year.
The Phillies released starer Taijuan Walker after five starts. Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo and Andrew Painter haven’t been effective.
Cristopher Sánchez has been Philly’s only consistent starter. Zack Wheeler has been good since returning from the injured list on May 1, but two good starters aren’t nearly enough.
The other teams in the NL East will get plenty of chances to make up ground by beating the Braves.
The Braves have 13 games scheduled against the Mets, who they’ve yet to play. The Braves have 10 games left against the Marlins, nine against the Nationals and seven against the Phillies.
I see those games as opportunities for the Braves to bury their division foes. They are 10-3 combined against the Marlins, Phillies and Nationals. They are 19-10 against teams outside of the division.
The 2026 Braves are dominating the NL East like no other team ever has at this point of the year. They are dusting their East rivals like past great Braves teams couldn’t do until much deeper into the season.
It’s not too early to say the Braves are going to run away with the division.
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