Here’s what recent history says about the Braves at the trade deadline

However, the more likely outcome is this: A decent reliever whose ERA is higher than you’d like but there’s reason to think he’ll be better with the Braves in exchange for a minor leaguer who may make the majors but won’t come back to haunt the Braves if he gets there.

Dare to … have your expectations met.

It is a pattern that Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has followed repeatedly during his tenure, now in its ninth summer. He has often traded shrewdly at the trade deadline, which is Aug. 3.

But, for better or worse, he has not been party to blockbuster deals.

In the seven seasons in which the Braves have been a trade-deadline buyer — last year was the first time in his successful term that they weren’t trying to add for a postseason run — Anthopoulos has traded for 25 players at or near the trade deadline.

In that group, the highest WAR (by count of Baseball Reference) that any acquired player had accumulated by the time of the trade was 2.0.

A 2.0 at the end of July means you’re having a good season but not a great season. Through Monday’s games, there were 86 position players at 2.0 or better, according to Stathead, meaning that a 2.0 player is often the third-best hitter on a team. On the Braves, Michael Harris II led through Monday at 3.7, followed by Matt Olson at 3.5, Drake Baldwin at 2.6, Ozzie Albies at 2.2 and Mauricio Dubón at 2.1.

Two 2.0 hitters through Monday were Colson Montgomery of the Chicago White Sox (24 home runs but a .224 batting average) and Jac Caglianone of the Kansas City Royals (whose OPS of .757 was measurably but not drastically ahead of the MLB average of .721).

There were 47 pitchers with a 2.0 or better, including Braves ace Chris Sale at 3.5. A useful example of a pitcher in that neighborhood is Baltimore starter Brandon Young, who has a 3.13 ERA over 97.2 innings with a 1.9 WAR.

Any three of those players would help the Braves.

But remember, that’s been the Braves’ ceiling, not the norm. Twenty of Anthopoulos’ 25 acquisitions were between -.5 and 1.5 WAR at the time of their trade to the Braves. Only three were starting pitchers.

It isn’t that Anthopoulos hasn’t been willing to make bigger trades or that 2.0 WAR is some sort of limit.

In Anthopoulos’ time with Toronto, his most noted deadline trade was for five-time All-Star pitcher David Price, who had a 3.8 WAR with Detroit when he was dealt to the Blue Jays. Anthopoulos recently told 680 The Fan that in 2021, he thought he had a deal done with Washington for slugger Kyle Schwarber, who had a 2.1 WAR but had also hit 25 home runs in 72 games, before the Nationals traded him to Boston instead.

Regardless, Anthopoulos has done his work with smaller-stakes trades, often finding exceptional values.

Most memorably, in 2021, he netted Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall, who had a combined 1.0 WAR in 336 games before they were traded to the Braves. In Braves uniforms, they combined to produce 3.2 WAR in 207 games, along with NLCS and World Series MVP performances.

Even better, of the four players traded for the memorable foursome, only one has played in a major-league game since (Minnesota catcher Alex Jackson, a career .176 hitter). It’s fairly typical of what has become of prospects that the Braves have traded away, perhaps not surprising given the asking prices were not as high.

And that’s the rub for the Braves, who may be more unwilling to part with their most valued prospects than other franchises. Anthopoulos has often made smart deadline deals and it has yet to cost the franchise a player who has come back to haunt them. Often, it’s been relievers, who generally don’t command as much as starting pitchers or slugging position players.

The question at this deadline, with a team that could really use starting pitching help, is how willing the Braves will be to take on the risk of giving up a future star.

Baldwin, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, is an example that Anthopoulos likes to give of a prospect whom he was loath to surrender in a trade because of his promise.

Speaking hypothetically, would it have been worth it in 2024 to make a splashy trade at the cost of a player who has become a cornerstone and figures to help keep the Braves competitive in the future?

If it would have brought a World Series title, perhaps so, but probably not, otherwise. On the other hand, how many prospects turn into players of Baldwin’s stature?

The Braves have a number of prospect trade chips. Will they be willing to spend them?