Refunds? Price changes? Georgians face uncertainty after Trump tariff ruling

The administration said issues like fentanyl and ballooning trade deficits justified steep tariffs on just about every country on Earth. The White House has argued tariffs would boost jobs and prod foreign investment into the U.S.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods and the business or person importing the product typically pays the tax. Nearly 90% of the economic burden of Trump’s tariffs fell on U.S. firms and consumers, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In ruling on Friday it was illegal for Trump to impose tariffs under an emergency powers law without congressional approval, new questions sprouted in its wake.

What will Trump do? Will prices go down? Will businesses and consumers see refunds? Will supply chains snap back to pre-Trump days?

“I don’t think there is a ding dong the witch is dead, immediate change into what’s going to happen,” said Jay Bailey, president and CEO of the H.J. Russell Innovation Center for Entrepreneurs, in the immediate hours after the ruling.

“I want people to make sure that they understand that, yes, it has been ruled illegal, but there’s still more process before we see any true action take place,” he added.

On Friday, a defiant Trump announced he would institute a 10% global tariff on all foreign trade partners under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a provision that allows the president to impose duties for up to 150 days. The taxes hit many foreign goods, though there are exemptions.

Less than 24 hours later, Trump increased that global levy to 15%. On his social media platform Truth Social, the president said the new tariff was effective immediately, though his previous proclamation declaring the 10% tariff was set to take effect Tuesday. He also said more tariff-related change is on the horizon.

Congress would have to vote to extend the Section 122 tariffs, which is unlikely with midterms around the corner, Inu Manak, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a Friday analysis.

Trump has said he would replace the temporary levies with more permanent ones under Section 301 of the Trade Act, according to The Wall Street Journal, but that law requires a formal investigation of unfair trade practices before tariffs can be imposed.

“During the next short number of months, the Trump Administration will determine and issue the new and legally permissible Tariffs, which will continue our extraordinarily successful process of Making America Great Again,” the president’s Truth Social post said.

A wide swath of products will be excluded from the new duties, including certain critical minerals, books, pharmaceuticals, and on the agriculture side, beef, tomatoes and oranges. Canadian and Mexican goods that comply with a previous trade deal are also exempted.

Trump also said he would implement investigations into trade practices by other countries that could provide justification for future trade crackdowns.

Tariffs on steel, aluminum and other metals will remain in effect because they were instigated through different legal mechanisms than the ones the Supreme Court struck down.

The Metro Atlanta Chamber, which represents the business interests of the 29-county Atlanta area including its Fortune 500 corporate giants, has been counseling its members to expect Friday’s Supreme Court outcome.

Jerry Parrish, the chamber’s chief economist, said that preparation should provide “a measure of certainty” to make short-term decisions in the wake of the bombshell ruling.

He added that “eyes will turn toward Congress” and whether it will enact new import taxes to plug the revenue shortfall brought by the tariff revocation. He said the price and trade certainty that businesses crave is also undercut by Trump’s new global tariffs.

“We all are looking for certainty … the Supreme Court ruling helps us some, but we know this is not over,” Parrish said.

Impact on prices

The Tax Foundation estimated Trump’s original tariffs cost the average household about $1,000 last year.

The president’s new tariffs are estimated to cost the average household about $700 this year, with about $250 of that from the temporary 15% import taxes, the Tax Foundation said Saturday.

Persistent inflation continues to weigh on many households and consumer sentiment remains low, with about 46% of consumers saying high prices are eroding their personal finances, according to the University of Michigan’s final February sentiment index.

Atlanta companies had to adjust, such as Home Depot, which said last year higher tariffs would cause “modest price movement” in some of its product categories. A Home Depot spokesperson said Friday the company was “still evaluating” the court ruling.

Sandy Springs-based UPS has been on the front lines of the constantly changing tariff landscape for the last year. The company calculates customs duties and confirms documentation for government officials.

In a statement Friday, the company noted that the Supreme Court does not address the question of refunds and does not impact other presidential tariff powers, including the White House’s newly announced global tariff under Section 122. The ones struck down were under a trade law known as IEEPA.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it is stopping the collection of tariffs imposed under IEEPA of as 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday.

Credit: sou

Credit: sou

It’s not yet immediately clear what impact the Supreme Court’s decision will have on prices.

Aaron Brown, owner of Town Center Music in Suwanee, has dealt with declining sales and inventory challenges, which late last year he attributed to tariffs.

The Supreme Court ruling felt like a “ray of hope,” Brown said Friday.

“It feels comforting to know that some functions of government are functioning as intended,” he said.

Brown said he’d like to see prices ease on items such as instrument stands and tuners, which soared since Trump’s return to office.

Vivian Yue, professor of economics at Emory University, said she anticipates some price relief.

“I think they should come down,” she said. “But exactly how much, that’s a question.”

She said that’s because firms have to make their individual pricing decisions, and a lot depends on what the federal government does next.

Credit: Natrice Miller

Credit: Natrice Miller

John Mercer, head of global research for data firm Coresight Research, said the Supreme Court ruling “reinjects substantial uncertainty” over the tariff rates retailers will pay. The calendar might say February, but the court’s decision comes at a time when many retailers are already planning for the end-of-year holiday season.

“It is currently unclear whether tariff certainty will be evident in time for most peak-season manufacturing orders,” he said. But if tariff policies are unwound even in part, retailers should have a greater range of sourcing options.

Parrish from the Metro Atlanta Chamber advised companies to pay attention to federal interest rates, which could be impacted by the tariff shake-up and would ripple through the broader economy.

Potential tariff refunds

Chris Peterson, president and CEO of Atlanta-based Newell Brands, which is the parent company of consumer brands like Rubbermaid and Yankee Candle, said at a conference Friday it is too early to say what the implications of the court’s decision could be and whether companies will be entitled to a refund or not.

Peterson said Newell Brands paid $174 million of incremental tariff costs in 2025 that was not in the company’s plan.

In response to tariffs last year, Newell Brands moved more of its supply chain out of China and implemented cost-cutting measures. It also raised prices on its products and laid off more than 900 workers globally.

Now, the “substantial majority” of the tariffs it paid last year and expected to pay in 2026 have been ruled invalid, Peterson said.

Credit: Patricia Murphy

Credit: Patricia Murphy

Joe Novak, who owns Buckhead toy store Kazoo Toys, said he took Friday’s court ruling with a grain of salt, “knowing full well a reimbursement would be a pipe dream.”

Sina Golara, assistant professor of supply chain management at Georgia State University, said companies are going to be lining up to demand refunds from the tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled were illegal. But it won’t be an easy process.

“It’s really not clear who bore the costs,” Golara said. “The importer of record paid it to the Treasury Department, but this might have been the result of a three-way negotiation between the foreign supplier, domestic buyers and the logistics company. Now they have to figure out who deserves how much.”

It is pretty clear one group won’t be made whole, and that’s the everyday consumer, he said. Many companies opted to pass tariff-related price increases down to the consumer, who won’t get any resource or qualify for any potential refunds.

Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a frequent Trump critic, wrote a letter to the president on Friday demanding a $1,700 refund for every family in his state and threatened “further action” if the administration did not comply.

— Staff writer Emma Hurt contributed to this report.