AJC poll: More than $100M later, GOP governor’s race is neck-and-neck

The poll showed Jackson at 27% and Jones at 25%, essentially a tie as the difference between the two heavyweights falls within the survey’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger trailed with 14%, while Attorney General Chris Carr was at 3%. The other contenders barely registered.

The poll captures a volatile GOP contest where Jackson and Jones have distanced themselves from the rest of the field. Raffensperger still has a plausible path to a runoff, while Carr has struggled to gain traction. Roughly 30% of likely Republican voters remain undecided — a group large enough to reshape the race in the final stretch.

Jackson’s support was strongest among older and wealthier voters. Jones led Jackson among younger voters. Among conservative voters — the party’s most reliable bloc — the two were closely matched.

Raffensperger’s path depends on consolidating Republicans and GOP-leaning independents uneasy with the ugly Jones-Jackson clash and who admire his stand against Trump’s attempt to overturn the election results in 2020.

But a primary electorate dominated by MAGA loyalists leaves him little room for error. He drew nearly one-third of self-described moderates and independents, but only 11% of conservatives.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Dan William of Hall County, a Libertarian-leaning Republican who said he is increasingly frustrated with the MAGA wing of the party, is backing Raffensperger to make a statement.

“I’m proud of what he did with the 2020 election and how he held his ground. He didn’t fold to the pressure,” said William, who works in industrial manufacturing. “I feel for him. He shouldn’t have to face a tougher road for doing the right thing.”

Carr, meanwhile, is struggling to gain traction after entering the race in November 2024 shortly after Trump recaptured the White House. He was polling in third place even before Jackson upended the race with his surprise candidacy.

For Carr and the other trailing candidates, the best chance is appealing to voters who are still up in the air. Michael McDaniel of Gwinnett County said he’s searching for the candidate with the best plan to cut property taxes.

Heather Hunting, an educator also in Gwinnett, prizes independence above all.

“I’m really struggling. I like parts of each one of their agendas. But I don’t like that there has been an overwhelming falling-in-line behind Trump,” she said. “I’m a die-hard Republican and I don’t know who to vote for right now.”

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

The survey, conducted April 18-26 by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, involved 1,000 likely Republican voters. It also captured how sharply the race has changed since the last AJC poll in November.

Back then, Jones led with 22%, followed by Raffensperger at 15% and Carr at 7%. Now Jackson and Jones are fighting for front-runner status while Raffensperger has held steady and Carr has lost ground.

The lack of a runaway favorite helped fuel Jackson’s surprise bid, which opened with a promise to spend at least $50 million of his own fortune. He has already gone well beyond that mark, spending at least $65 million on television ads alone. James Eunice, a Cherokee County paramedic, likes what he sees.

“What got me the most is that he’s an outsider,” Eunice said.

Jones has countered with nearly $30 million in ad spending, creating an air war that has made both candidates inescapable to many Georgians. Other Republican rivals have chipped in millions of their own, but have struggled to break through amid the onslaught of Jackson and Jones ads.

Much of Jones’ messaging emphasizes President Donald Trump’s endorsement, a stamp of approval that resonated with voters like Ruth Connelly of Tyrone.

“That matters to me,” said Connelly, a researcher and self-described Trump loyalist. “His agenda is so important to me and I’ll fight for candidates who back it.”